Historical market projections and the future of silicon solar cells

Market share percentage measured against year and PERC technology

The solar cell manufacturing industry is undergoing a rapid transformation, as new high efficiency 'passivating contacts' designs enter the market. The International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRV) outlines historical projections for how technological change will occur in the future.

In the article 'Historical market projects and the future of silicon solar cells', published in Joule, the authors* analyse the accuracy of these industry projections. By reflecting on 10 years of roadmap data they highlight the fast-moving nature of the PV industry, meaning that business-as-usual projections must be assessed with caution.

* Dr Matthew Wright and Professor Sebastian Bonilla from this department together with a team in Australia made up by CSIRO Energy and the University of New South Wales.